Mar 19
2024

Gold price struggles to lure buyers, holds steady above one-week low ahead of FOMC meeting

Gold price ticks lower amid reduced Fed rate cut bets, elevated US bond yields and stronger USD. Geopolitical tensions could lend some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and help limit losses.

Technical Overview

From a technical perspective, the recent pullback from the record peak stalled near the $2,145-2,144 support zone, which should now act as a key pivotal point for the Gold price. A convincing break below will expose the next relevant support near the $2,128-2,127 zone before the XAU/USD extends the corrective decline further towards the $2,100 round figure.

On the flip side, the $2,175-2,176 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier, which if cleared should allow the Gold price to challenge the record peak, around the $2,195 area touched last week. Some follow-through buying beyond the $2,200 mark will set the stage for the resumption of the uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this month.

 

Fundamental Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers on Tuesday and stalls the previous day's modest bounce from the $2,145 zone, or over a one-week low. The stronger US inflation figures released last week fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stick to its higher-for-longer interest rates narrative and also modify its forward guidance to two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 instead of the three projected previously. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and lifts the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-week high, which, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal. 

That said, the markets are still expecting the Fed to start the rate-cutting cycle as early as the June policy meeting. This, along with persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, could offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price and help limit losses. Traders might also prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets around the XAU/USD. Hence, the focus remains on the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday, which will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal.