Jul 29
2024

Gold price appreciates as US Dollar remains tepid due to rising hopes of Fed rate cuts

​​​A combination of supporting factors assists the Gold price to attract buyers for the second successive day. The USD remains depressed amid the September Fed rate cut bets and acts as a tailwind to the XAU/USD. 

Technical Overview

The recent repeated failures to find acceptance below the 50-day SMA and the subsequent bounce warrant some caution for bearish traders amid neutral oscillators on the daily chart. Bulls, however, struggle to capitalize on the Asian session uptick to levels beyond the $2,400 mark, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the Gold price has bottomed out. 

In the meantime, momentum above the $2,400 round figure is likely to confront some resistance near the $2,412 area ahead of last week's swing high, around the $2,432 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that the corrective decline from the all-time peak touched earlier this month has run its course and set the stage for additional gains. The Gold price might then climb to the $2,469-2,470 intermediate resistance and challenge the record peak, around the $2,483-2,484 zone. 

On the flip side, weakness below the $2,380 level might continue to attract buyers near the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,360-2,359 region, and remain limited. A sustained breakdown through the said support, however, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $2,325 area. The downward trajectory could extend further towards testing the $2,300 round-figure mark for the first time since late June.

 

Fundamental Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends gains for the second consecutive session, trading around $2,400 per troy ounce during the European session on Monday. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Friday showed that inflation rose modestly in June and lifted bets for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle. This leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East offer additional support to the safe-haven Gold price. The upside, however, remains capped in the wake of the upbeat mood across the global equity markets, which tends to undermine demand for the traditional safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders also prefer to wait for the outcome of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This, along with key US macro data scheduled at the start of a new month, including the Nonfirm Payrolls (NFP) report, will provide a fresh impetus to the commodity.