Feb 26
2024

Gold price consolidates around 50-day SMA, downside seems cushioned amid sliding US bond yields

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the early part of the European session, albeit lacks follow-through and remains below a two-week high touched on Friday.

Technical  Overview

From a technical perspective, failure to find acceptance above the 50-day SMA and a modest pullback from the $2,041-2,042 intermediate hurdle warrants some caution for bullish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for additional near-term gains. Hence, any subsequent decline is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the $2,024 horizontal support.

A convincing break below, however, will expose the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,007 area. This is followed by the $2,000 psychological mark, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The Gold price might then accelerate the slide towards the $1,984 region before eventually dropping to the very important 200-day SMA support near the $1,967-1,966 zone.

On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a move beyond Friday's swing high, around the $2,041-2,042 area, before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then aim to challenge the next relevant hurdle near the $2,065 supply zone. Some follow-through buying will set the stage for a move towards reclaiming the $2,100 round figure mark for the first time since early December 2023.

 

Fundamental Overview

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the early part of the European session, albeit lacks follow-through and remains below a two-week high touched on Friday. The FOMC meeting minutes released last week, along with hawkish remarks by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, reaffirmed market bets that the US central bank will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on its bounce from a nearly three-week low touched last Thursday amid retreating US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the Gold price. Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation of military action in the Middle East, along with the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, offers additional support to the safe-haven precious metal. This, in turn, should help limit any corrective decline for the XAU/USD.