Feb 22
2024

Gold stays below $2,030 as markets assess US data

Gold is having a hard time preserving its bullish momentum and trading below $2,030 in the second half of the day on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady near 4.3% after US data, not allowing XAU/USD to gain traction.

From a technical perspective, bulls need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 50-day SMA before positioning for any further gains. With oscillators on the daily chart just starting to gain positive traction, the Gold price might then accelerate the momentum towards an intermediate hurdle near the $2,044-2,045 region en route to the $2,065 supply zone.

On the flip side, the $2,020 area now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near just below the $2,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling will expose the monthly low, around the $1,984 region, before the Gold price eventually drops to challenge the very important 200-day SMA support near the $1,966-1,965 zone.

 

Fundamental Overview

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains positive traction for the sixth successive day on Thursday and climbs back above the $2,030 level during the early part of the European session, closer to over a one-week high touched the previous day. Despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook on interest rates, the US Dollar (USD) drops to a three-week low and turns out to be a key factor underpinning the commodity. Apart from this, concerns about geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East further benefit the precious metal's safe-haven status and remain supportive of the move up. 

Meanwhile, the minutes of the January FOMC meeting reaffirmed market expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation and the still-resilient US economy. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which should help limit deeper losses for the USD and act as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Furthermore, a generally positive tone around the equity markets makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bullish bets around the XAU/USD.