Feb 14
2024

Gold price consolidates post-US CPI losses, seems vulnerable near two-month low

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move and remains depressed below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low heading into the European session on Monday. 

From a technical perspective, some follow-through selling below the $1,990-1,988 region (100-day SMA) might expose the very important 200-day SMA support, currently pegged near the $1,965 area. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move. The Gold price might then fall to an intermediate support near the $1,952-1,950 zone before eventually dropping to the November 2023 low, around the $1,932-1,931 region.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery beyond the $2,000 mark now seems to confront stiff resistance near the $2,011-2,012 area. That said, some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the $2,015 level, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price to the 50-day SMA, currently around the $2,030 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for additional gains beyond the $2,044-2,045 intermediate hurdle, towards the $2,065 supply zone.

 

Fundamental Overview

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move and remains depressed below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low heading into the European session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation report released on Tuesday fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until the June policy meeting before cutting interest rates. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and undermines the non-yielding yellow metal.

That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from its highest level since November 14 touched the previous day lends some support to the Gold price. Apart from this, a turnaround in the risk sentiment – as depicted by a sharp decline across the global equity markets – assists the safe-haven precious metal in defending the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. That said, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USDremains to the downside.