May 20
2024

EUR/USD grinds higher toward 1.0900, Fedspeak eyed

EUR/USD is edging higher toward 1.0900 early Monday, helped by a better market mood. The pair also draws support from softer US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields, awaiting Fedspeak amid light European trading. 

Technical Overview

The Relative Strength Index declined on Thursday but stabilized above 60, suggesting that the latest pullback was a technical correction rather than the beginning of a reversal. 1.0890-1.0900 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, upper limit of the ascending regression channel, psychological level) aligns as first resistance before 1.0940 (static level) and 1.0980 (March 8 high).

On the downside, strong support is located at 1.0830-1.0820 (100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), mid-point of the channel) ahead of 1.0790-1.0800 (50-day SMA, 200-day SMA).

 

Fundamental Overview

Following Wednesday's upsurge, EUR/USD struggled to preserve its bullish momentum and closed modestly lower on Thursday. The pair stays relatively calm slightly above 1.0850 in the early European session o Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) managed to stage a rebound on Thursday after the data published by the US Department of Labor showed that there were 222,000 weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending May 11, down from 232,000 in the previous week. Additionally, cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials with regards to policy easing helped the USD stay resilient against its major rivals.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he was pleased with the inflation progress in April but noted that the Fed was not yet there to cut the policy rate. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester noted that the monetary policy was well-positioned as they look to review more data and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barking Told CNBC that the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that inflation was not where the Fed was trying to get.

The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Friday. In the American session, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will be delivering speeches.

In case Fed officials stick to a cautious tone, the USD could hold its ground heading into the weekend and make it difficult for EUR/USD to extend its weekly uptrend.